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The Mercatus Energy Pipeline

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March 2013 Energy Hedging Update

  
  
  

Since our February update, all of the major crude oil and refined product forward curves have declined significantly over the past month. On average, the forward curves for global crude oil and refined products prices declined by 5.68% over the past month, led by WTI crude oil, which declined 7.10% since our February update.  At the request of several subscribers, we are now including Dubai crude oil calendar swaps to our monthly update.

wti crude oil hedging calendar swap march 1 2013 resized 600

On the natural gas side, NYMEX futures have continued to strengthen since our last update with the one year forward curve up 3.48% since our February update.

In the natural gas liquids space, the NGL forward curves declined by an average of 5.05% over the past month, led by normal butane which collapsed by 10.41% since the February update. 

The following table displays the indicative, one year, forward strip prices as of the close of business on March 1, 2013, as well as the respective changes since the previous update, which was based on prices as of the close of business on February 1, 2013. Crude oil, refined product and NGL forward curves are based on March 2013 - February 2014 calendar swaps while NYMEX natural gas forward curves are based on April 2013 - March 2014 futures.

  Current Previous Change ($) Change (%)
NYMEX Crude Oil ($/BBL) 91.39 98.38 -6.99 -7.10%
ICE Brent Crude Oil ($/BBL) 105.92 112.10 -6.18 -5.51%
Dubai Crude Oil ($/BBL) 102.78 110.03 -7.25 -6.59%
NYMEX Heating Oil ($/Gal) 2.9612 3.1363 -0.1751 -5.58%
NYMEX RBOB Gasoline ($/Gal) 2.7965 2.9383 -0.1418 -4.83%
ICE Gasoil ($/MT) 910.38 967.43 -57.05 -5.90%
Gulf Coast ULSD ($/Gal) 2.9319 3.1039 -0.1720 -5.54%
Gulf Coast 6 Oil 3% ($/BBL) 93.24 98.61 -5.37 -5.45%
Rotterdam 3.5% Fuel Oil ($/MT) 593.94 627.38 -33.44 -5.33%
Singapore Fuel Oil 180 CST ($/MT) 627.19 658.98 -31.79 -4.82%
Gulf Coast Jet Fuel ($/Gal) 2.9444 3.1297 -0.1853 -5.92%
Singapore Jet Fuel ($/BBL) 122.25 129.60 -7.36 -5.68%
ARA Jet Fuel ($/MT) 993.91 1052.67 -58.76 -5.58%
NYMEX Natural Gas ($/MMBtu) 3.751 3.625 0.126 3.48%
Mont Belvieu Propane ($/Gal) 0.8798 0.9164 -0.0366 -3.99%
Mont Belvieu Natural Gasoline ($/Gal) 2.0118 2.1793 -0.1675 -7.69%
Mont Belvieu Normal Butane ($/Gal) 1.4417 1.6092 -0.1675 -10.41%
Mont Belvieu Ethane ($/Gal) 0.2745 0.2694 0.0051 1.88%

The prices used in our monthly updates are "rolled" each month such that the previous update included one year (twelve month) strips beginning in February 2013 and ending in January 2014, for all but natural gas, which began with March 2013 and ended with February 2014. In addition, all of the strips, expect NYMEX natural gas, are for "calendar swaps" rather than futures, as the majority of consumers and producers hedging crude oil, refined products and NGLs hedge with calendar swaps, rather than futures.

 

 


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